Pivot!

It's a tale old as time. You start off with an idea. It sounds great. The feedback says it's great. So the plan proceeds. But then you realize this is happening: 

We (myself, the ITP and NYU Poly collaborators) had developed visual prototypes for a moviegoing and movieticketing app. Its features included variable pricing, the social event aspect of moviegoing, and other features that acknowledge that the decision to attend a movie is not motivated only by price. 

It seems we made a car and forgot the engine. The heart of the project remains answering (or giving the best go of it possible) whether or not dynamic or variable pricing would bring in uncaptured demand. Although great research has been uncovered throughout the last several quarters, we haven't clearly answered that question. Part of it was due to lack of data. But all our work isn't for naught, it's just that a shift, a pivot is needed. 

For the remainder of the fellowship, we're building the engine: building models and running simulations and making assumptions about what variable pricing would do to attendance and revenues. "If X is reduced by Y%, what happens to Z?" Financial 10-Ks for theater exhibitors will be useful to building hypothetical profit-and-loss statements, and we've found some comparable industries (that do variable pricing). In the end, we'll build infographics of our results and a comprehensive whitepaper of this year's research. And then, present our prototype. 

It's tempting to say, "why didn't we do this first?" but there were some big challenges. Firstly, when we couldn't get the data sources required, I was uncomfortable with just building simulations off of assumptions. Plus, there was already academic literature out there about variable pricing's merits; what else could we add? So I jumped straight into the prototype phase. But as some wise advisors mentioned, these simulations are just a start. We'll keep it as simple as possible. We're opening up the conversation and gladly invite others to point out what is wrong, how we can improve our assumptions, and adjust accordingly. 

Stay tuned for more progress updates! This is what we want in the end:

Film Tracking or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Opening Weekends

How do we track movie performance?

In a late summer Deadline article, Anita Busch wrote about the recent poor performance of movie tracking services and laments the studios’ wasted money spent on wildly inaccurate box office projections. Ms. Busch is not alone in highlighting this issue – in recent months reporters for many industry publications have written articles bemoaning the state of the so-called “predictive reports.” In her article, Anita cites an industry insider who thinks “[the tracking services] need to go a little deeper in their research, in the way that they ask and who they ask.” According to the article, some blame the tracking services for not being able to keep up with the habits and influencers of a generation of consumers making nearly constant use of smart phones and social networks in deciding how to spend their time. While the commonly used tracking services have used focus groups to understand consumer behavior for decades, they’re less savvy at taking into account online behavior. Ms. Busch notes that the focus of tracking companies should be on accurately representing projects’ profitability, since that’s what most stakeholders are concerned with after all. She closes the article with a question: “So how do you fix it? Anyone?”

[I am eagerly raising my hand – this slows down my typing but I’m hoping sooner or later they’ll call on me]

Focusing on overall profitability sounds like an excellent idea! But before deciding how to fix a system that may or may not be broken, let’s take a moment to consider what these companies are trying to do and how they arise at their projections…

The purpose of these services’ reporting is to provide a snapshot of the marketplace and how specific marketing materials are being received at the current time. They attempt to do this primarily by polling groups of likely moviegoers (on phone, web and in person), asking whether they’re "aware" of specific movies and to report on the likelihood they will see it. These respondents are broken into quadrants: males <25, males >25, females <25, and females >25, with racial divisors sometimes incorporated. These are relatively broad dividing factors, but as such they serve as flexible indicators of awareness of many types of films and film releases. In addition to weekly reports, many of these firms offer bespoke services like testing trailers, TV spots and print ads, conducting exit polls, hosting recruited-audience screenings, organizing focus groups, testing titles and positioning and studying franchises. However, it is the weekly reports that are purchased in large numbers and used to project opening weekend returns – projections responsible for the recent bad press when widely off the mark.

Boiling it down, these weekly tracking reports are trying to determine 2 things: (1) the number of people aware of upcoming movies; and (2) how many of them intend to buy tickets at the theater. Using polling to study the success of a film’s marketing campaign probably feels worth the investment to most of the studios and production companies that subscribe to it. However, the questions are whether these reports should be used as predictive indicators and whether they, along with actual box office reporting, need be the only metric for film investors to value types of films.

Those of us who take an interest in such things want a larger selection of touchpoints to gauge film performance. We want to be able to place films in a clear context so not every film is being judged on the same scale. Investors in small films don’t expect anywhere near the level of return that a studio blockbuster commands. Yet, in broad strokes, the industry and media look at next weekend’s box office as though all the films are running in the same race. It’s wrong to act like we can gauge all films against one another in a single list. But more than that, this lack of sophisticated reporting and predictive metrics is detrimental to the film industry by making it appear even more volatile than it actually is.

When do we track movie performance?

These reports highlight the industry obsession over the all-important opening weekend. Why do we put so much emphasis on a film’s performance during opening weekend? Because we do, that’s why. Sure, one can examine how over time, the industry has matured in a way that it has naturally come to focus on opening weekend because it’s a relatively straightforward way for distributors and exhibitors to cull poorer performing films from a finite number of movie theaters. There’s nothing wrong with that per se – the industry has to create some Darwinian mechanism to allow specific films to survive and perish in the theatrical window and opening weekend has risen to become a key indicator. But does such an overwhelming focus on the first three days actually make sense in a world where a film’s revenue is earned over such a longer period and through so many other avenues than just theatrical exhibition?

The book publishing industry, which itself is in the midst of some much needed renovation, uses the term frontlist to mean current titles – books that were released recently and which are still receiving conscious marketing resources. Backlist refers to anything that doesn’t fit that category. While many publishers do focus on frontlist to drive the bulk of their revenue, an increasing number of companies rely equally if not more so on maintaining a backlist that performs strongly for years. By achieving stable sales from a sizable backlist library, these companies feel comfortable when taking measured risks on the frontlist they believe in rather than nervous over the success or failure of each new title.

The analogy between film and publishing isn’t exact, but if you were to draw a line between film and publishing release cycles, frontlist would be equivalent to the theatrical window (assuming a typical release pattern). Backlist would be the windows after a film is in theaters (VOD, DVD, etc.). Studios don’t need to be taught the lesson of how important “backlist” revenue is to their bottom line. The money made from film libraries dating back nearly a century continue to bolster studio revenues and require much less servicing than the heavily marketed premiere of their next film. However, in part because of the sheer size of many film budgets, they continue to place enormous emphasis on the film that’s premiering rather than focus on extending the active lifespan of past releases.

We do sometimes read articles reporting on aggregate film sales, especially as films cross their next $100mm threshold or meet some other notable milestone. However, the focus on a film’s performance wane week over week as it ages. For the consumer or hobbyist reader, this is likely the way it should be – popular film journalism should be entertaining so it should focus on what is new. However, film investors need the ability to continually view a film in its proper context, throughout its life, to understand how it’s performing compared to expectations, what those expectations were, how other correlated films are performing at that time, etc.

The film finance index is being designed to provide just that type of context. Not to replace tracking services. Not to diminish the importance of opening weekends. But to add a tool to an investor’s toolbox that provides clarity about the performance metrics they’re seeing. In my next blog post I’ll delve into my latest progress toward this end.

3 Ways Technology is Changing the Face of the Film World

For far too long, weekend after weekend in the movie theaters we have found ourselves stuck in the mire of the mundane.  Watching the same old thing--- tentpole films, CGI, big-budget, sequels, prequels, super hero, comic book movies about white men with super powers flying through the sky in tights. 

The question becomes---  where does that leave the talented indie filmmaker with the more meager means?  Or the microbudget filmmaker with a high quality festival recognized product?  Or better still, the multicultural or underrepresented filmmaker creating for specialized audiences? 

In the digital ubiquity of today’s world it’s all about evolution, innovation, iterations, updates, new versions, better models, and constant change.  So if visibility equals power, how do the women and men making the types of films I've described above tell their stories, in their own voices and raise our collective media visibility?

Could technology be the answer?  I think so. And here are three ways I've used technology through my Project Catalyst initiative to build community and amplify the distribution of multicultural films as well as tap into film enthusiasts and movie audiences on 6 different continents in 21 countries around the world in just 4 weeks!

1. The Democratization of Information

For the first time in history we have the opportunity to engage in a total systems reboot of the film ecology.  Project Catalyst activates the same digitally powered economies of scale that allowed iTunes to change the music landscape.

Through social media campaigns we've been able to galvanize filmmakers and film lovers around the world who share the same values and introduce them to new works by indie artists who are creating some of the most creative and socially relevant work today. Platforms like Facebook allow you to target individuals with specific interests that are more inclined to appreciate the work being made in the underground. 

Engaging these people early and often helps us consolidate the energy of those who are ready to support, but didn't know what exactly to do or where to go.  One of the marvels of the internet is how much information can be shared and exchanged to expand the reach of filmmakers creating for specialized audiences.  Use this information to test out your ideas and experiment with audience building. This is the most valuable asset you can ever imagine.

2. Content & Community Aggregation

Technology also allows you to increase your volume of content creation and output at a fraction of the cost of established media entities.  From the onset I have designed Project Catalyst to be an aggregator of content and to use that content and the followings of filmmakers who created it to build a bridge and make critical connections between like minded creatives who are also working to push the boundaries of artistic expression without compromise.

The creation of the Project Catalyst Film & Music App has allowed us an opportunity to offer the world something no one else can--- a transmedia repository of the most diverse, fresh and provocative indie cinema on the planet.  In this sense, technology has not only allowed us to trigger a flashpoint of creative innovation, but to also trigger a flashpoint of artistic expression.  Now filmmakers have a signature destination where their content can reach the people who care the most about their work.

The Project Catalyst App is a signature destination that not only connects filmmakers with their target audiences --- it also provides a customized cinema and media platform that connects multicultural communities with content that reflects a broader scope of our humanity and the true spirit and diversity present in America today.

Through technology Project Catalyst allows for the aggregation and cross platform, cross pollination of content that has drawn diverse communities together.  In this way, new communities have developed around a shared new media experience and this generates new value.  Building your film community is a vital task for the modern indie filmmaker if we are to take full advantage of new technology.

3. Direct to Audience Access

Technology is also providing a new space for direct audience access.  Particularly, mobile technology.  One result of today's hyper-mediated world, is people now carry screens around with them everywhere.  Why not place your content on devices people carry with them the most, their smartphone or tablet? 

In many countries, notably in Africa and Asia, their mobile infrastructure and usage is far ahead of the United States.  Today's American indie filmmaker must think about how can I get my work on these very important screens.  Reaching these screens offers an easy access for audiences to connect with and plug into you and share your work with others who will do the same. 

So if you’re only interested in watching or having your content appear on broadcast or cable tv, Hollywood movies, or anything coming out of dominant media you probably don’t know anything about Touch by Shola Amoo, or Page 36 by Nelsan Ellis or I’ve Been Life by Cody Chesnutt, or any of the really amazing artists featured on the Project Catalyst App who are doing fantastic work all over the world, and you're definitely missing an opportunity to connect with your audience in a new more intimate way,  a way that will only continue to grow.

By being featuring their work on the Project Catalyst App our direct audience access has provided several filmmakers with new opportunities to showcase their films in traditional film festivals.  Festival directors have approached me about films that appear on the App and I've been invited to curate a program of films in the 18th annual Urbanworld Film Festival in New York City. 

This venture, dubbed, Urbanworld Underground by Project Catalyst takes place on Saturday September 20th at AMC 34th Street Theater and is increasing exposure for filmmakers and extending the life and reach of their work. 

For more info and tickets to Urbanworld Underground by Project Catalyst go to: urbanworld.org/underground .  We'll be exhibiting six films, including, sci-fi, animation, documentary, and thriller genres.

So when you're thinking about your next move as a filmmaker or ways to increase viewership and build community, think about the ways I've described above to employ new technologies and take advantage of the Project Catalyst App as a platform to let your cinematic voice be heard across the world! 

Leave a comment below and tell me the ways you're using technology to spread your film and media content.

Great ideas can change the world but it requires great people to make it happen, so download the Project Catalyst App here and spread the word.

Artel Great in Black Enterprise talks CRI, Project Catalyst, and Film as an Opportunity

2014 CRI Fellow is making waves and headlines with this CRI Fellowship project, Project Catalyst. 

During the course of his CRI Fellowship, Artel has launched Project Catalyst as movement for multicultural content and is supporting that movement with the Project Catalyst app, which is dedicated to distribution of diverse content to a receptive and engaged multicultural audience - an audience that the mainstream media often ignores.

Read the latest article on Artel and his work at BlackEnterprise.com, read his research and reflections here on the CRI blog, check out Project Catalyst online and on Facebook, and - most importantly - download the Project Catalyst app here. 

Artel will be talking more about Project Catalyst and the work he's done through his CRI Fellowship at the 18th Annual Urbanworld Film Festival, where he is curating a program of short multicultural content and will speak on a technology panel. More info to come!

On the Good Foot: the Project Catalyst NYC App Launch Review

It has been said “if you can make it in New York City, you can make it anywhere.”  After spending a year designing and building the Project Catalyst App, the time had come to unleash it on the world.  What better place to do so than New York City.  As you know, my research agenda centers on uncovering new solutions to expand media diversity and multicultural film distribution.  My goal is to use digital technology to bring progressive entertainment to underserved multicultural communities. 

Contemporaneously, the Project Catalyst App is designed to offer filmmakers from diverse backgrounds a signature destination that would showcase their incredible movies and music videos to people around the world.  This is a long overdue solution to expanding humanistic and diverse media content.

The Project Catalyst New York City App Launch was held at the Museum of Contemporary African Diasporan Arts (MoCADA) in the heart of Fort Greene Brooklyn. 

The event took place in a large art gallery featuring the work of an amazing visual artist, and was designed to be part industry mixer, part presentation.  I did no public marketing for this event.  My team and I sent personal invitations to guests we believed would share our values and desires.  Our guests were treated to delectable hor devours and beverages and soulful tunes from DJ Jahmedicine.  Attendees included: actors, filmmakers, producers, scholars, writers, and musicians, and television personalities.  People from diverse backgrounds who really desire to see a positive shift in the representational politics of film and media distribution. 

My presentation informed guests why the time was ripe for change to occur and why the Project Catalyst App was the perfect solution for the new social savvy multicultural media creator and consumer.  After all, people of color make up nearly 60 percent of the movie-going audience, shouldn’t they be better represented on the screens they watch? 

The most exciting aspect of the event was revealing the app to the audience on a large projector.  I was able to showcase a brief overview of the apps functionality and content.  We watched snippets from the Project Catalyst App, which features three distinct content channels: Reflections (i.e. short narrative) Vibes (i.e. music videos), and Truth (i.e. documentaries).  Guests were excited to see the app's beautiful design and how seamless it operated.  After all, giving a live presentation from my smartphone, could have gone two ways--- very good, or very bad.  Thankfully, the presentation at MoCADA went very well. 

The creative and artistic class in New York City straightaway embraced the new Project Catalyst platform, which was not an easy task to achieve.  Truly, a feat in and of itself.  In fact, our potential for expansion and partnerships was enhanced from this event.  Geoffrey Guerrero of the Katra Film Series (a Latino film series), Kay Shaw of the National Black Programming Consortium, and other organizations in attendance reached out to express their desire to develop collaborative partnerships and showcase their content on the Project Catalyst App. I guess you could say we got started off “on the good foot.” 

My goal is to begin to aggregate content and communities to enhance the platform, reach wider audiences, and create greater value through collective actions and engagement. 

One highlight of the event was the enthrallment of noted image activist and CNN contributor, Michaela Angela Davis, who after witnessing the demonstration of the Project Catalyst App immediately became an advocate for the transmedia platform and strategy.  In fact, Davis tweeted about the app touting its uniqueness as the "Netflix culturally curated around people of color."--- I could not have said it better myself!

I firmly believe that great ideas can change the world, but it requires great people to make it happen.  That’s why I need your help to download the app and share it with as many people as possible--- For easy access, you can find the Project Catalyst app here to download for free & watch.

See more about Project Catalyst initiatives at ProjectCatalyst.com

Find us on Facebook here and Follow us on Twitter here for more updates. 

Are Web Series Fulfilling the Promise of Democratized Online Media?

Ingrid Jungermann's web series, F TO 7TH.

Back in June, IndieWire's Aymar Jean Christian, wrote a compelling article on "Why Views Don't Matter for Indies," and it's worth re-reading this month as the traditional media outlets prepare to bombard American television audiences with the next season of sitcoms.  

The article highlights NYU Grad Film thesis student Ingrid Jungermann's latest web series, F TO 7TH, as an example of the kind of high quality, diverse, intelligent, and progressive performance and storytelling that the web promises and that we should be watching. His comparison of Jungermann's F TO 7TH to Louis C.K.'s LOUIE demonstrates that ratings aren't a measure of success, or art, and shouldn't be considered as such online. 

Christian makes a couple of excellent points in his article:

On disregarding ratings and popularity as a measure of success:

• Ratings "are best-guesses based on statistical probability and constantly at odds with how and where viewers watch television."

• "...virality' is not a significant measure of art." (Glazer, for Televisual)

On the flawed practice of measuring web series' value by ratings, or shares: 

• "The web has exponentially more channels, so audience measurement is more fraught. Nielsen and Comscore, the major measurement firms for web video, routinely disagree on ratings, often by wide margins. YouTube has spent years trying to legitimize viewcounts on the site, which are scarily easy to manipulate. Google's most recent solutions -- auditing views and choosing "preferred" networks for advertisers -- may reinforce existing inequalities on the site..."

• "...most popular videos... are designed to hook viewers in the first three seconds and encourage them to post on their timelines or subscribe at the end of the video."

• "...academic studies on spreadable media suggest that what's most likely to spread tends to focus on 'ordinary people, flawed masculinity, humor, simplicity, repetitiveness and whimsical content'..." (Shifman, New Media & Society)

On the great promise of the internet for the proliferation of diverse, quality content:

• Non-traditional media outlets, like Vimeo and YouTube to an extent, offer some room for the absurd, which is good because, "as we know from "Louie," absurdity exposes cultural norms and the fluidity of identity. Social life is absurd."

• Web series provide a space for diverse media creators and performers that largely doesn't exist in the current traditional media environment. F to 7TH highlights female talent on both sides of the camera, and does so such an extent that the myriad roles for women on the show challenge the media-made image of a woman on screen. 

• Web series, and F TO 7TH as an example, move toward fulfilling the promise of the internet in its capacity to provide "Open access to distribution was [that can] diversify the narratives we see from the media."

Christian's article makes great sense, and is encouraging both for creators of quality online content and audiences, but is denying the centrifugal force of ratings - which beget reviews, which beget sharing, which begets larger audiences, which beget ratings - an OK answer for content creators like Ingrid? LOUIE might not have the ratings that matters to traditional media, but the show and Louis C.K. certainly have the accolades of the traditional media outlets; the multiple (well-deserved) Emmys for which LOUIE has been nominated since its debut may make up for low ratings that, for a creator of his stature, could be dubbed "niche." 

What does the online ratings mess and potentially comprising "spreadability" factor mean for creators who are making LOUIE-level content but don't have his cache or the swooning awareness of the media (which translates to funding)? 

This is why the CRI exists. There is quality content at our fingertips, but it must be seen and shared and valued in order for it to thrive. 2014 CRI Fellow Forest Conner is working on ways for filmmakers to better market their films to diverse audiences and have a chance at story-driven spreadability. Artel Great, also a 2014 CRI Fellow, is establishing an alternative distribution network for diverse content - Project Catalyst - which is targeted directly at a large but underserved multicultural audience. 2013 CRI Fellows Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald wrote extensively on campaign-inspired methods of sharing and promoting original independent content. 

The promise of the internet for independent filmmakers isn't fulfilled yet, but the CRI is working on it. 

What is the Project Catalyst App?

As you know, I’ve been conducting research and spearheading the development of an innovative transmedia platform, dubbed Project Catalyst, that expands the possibilities for diversity in cinema and media through its convergence with new technology, community building, and the world of visual art via work created by filmmakers and artists of color.

Now, I have an exciting update aimed specifically at all you filmmakers and film lovers.

My vision to initiate fresh media distribution strategies, through Project Catalyst has taken a positive new step--- we’ve gone global. 

I’ve been working with a team of talented people to design, build, and launch the Project Catalyst App.  Where users can watch film, music videos, and documentaries from the brightest new indie artists right on a smartphone or tablet.  The app is compatible with iPhone and Android devices, and you can even watch on your flatscreen TV by using Google Chromecast or AppleTV.

With the Project Catalyst App,  I’ve designed the first application software to distinctively showcase narrative short films, documentaries, and music videos all made by talented indie artists from Black, Latino/a, and Asian communities.

The app’s content features an impressive array of genres from drama to animation, sci-fi to experimental.  The app currently offers three distinct content channels: 1) Reflections,  2) Vibes, and 3) Truth.   Reflections = narrative, Vibes = music videos and Truth = documentary. 

My goal is to use digital technology to bring better film options to multicultural communities by offering Project Catalyst as a signature destination that showcases incredible movies and music from artists who are creating work outside the Hollywood mainstream. 

It’s a long overdue solution to expanding humanistic and diverse media content.

My team and I have spent the last four weeks organizing a national launch tour for the Project Catalyst App.   We’ve been reaching out to artistically underserved populations across our multiple social media platforms, and so far we’ve successfully executed crowd-filled invite-only events in New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles. 

The goal here is to offer the creative class, media influencers and early adopters a chance to sample the goodies and help spread the word.  The response has been fantastic!

As of today, there are people watching the Project Catalyst App on every continent in 14 different countries across North and South America, Europe, the Caribbean, Asia, the Middle East, Australia, and Africa.  All of this based on positive word of mouth from our three launch events.

Could the Project Catalyst App be the perfect platform for a new generation of social savvy consumers?  Undoubtedly. 

I’ll be revealing the strategy behind our thought campaign and details from each launch event soon.  Also, stay tuned for behind the scenes video content from our tour and insights into how you can use the Project Catalyst App to expand the reach and extend the life of your film or new media project.

Get the app free right here: http://projectcatalyst.mobapp.at/

For more info go to: projectcatalyst.com and ‘Become a Catalyst.’

Find us on Facebook here and follow us on Twitter here.

Great ideas can change the world, but it takes great people to make it happen.

Artel Great's Project Catalyst App Launches - IndieWire Helps to Push Out Press

2014 CRI Fellow Artel Great has just completed a three-city release tour for the Project Catalyst App, a multicultural media distribution tool that he's been developing during his Fellowship, to enthusiastic crowds and positive press from industry trades. 

Indiewire has followed Artel's CRI Fellowship and featured the Project Catalyst app launch events in an article last week. Writer Curtis Caesar John notes, 

"The Project Catalyst app presents a significant breakthrough.  It is the first application software to distinctively showcase narrative short films, documentaries, and music videos all made by and featuring the brightest new multicultural talent from Black, Latino/a, and Asian communities. With a wide array of film genres represented including drama, animation, and experimental, the app’s content deals with themes of love, identity, sacrifice, family, and more. The app features three separate content channels with fresh names in place of typical categories: 'Reflections,' 'Vibes,' and 'Truth' to replace narratives, music videos, and documentaries. Users who download the app receive a new way of experiencing culture through mobile devices and digital content that reflects the type of programming multicultural communities are clamoring for."

The app is available for Apple and Android mobile devices; download the app here to start watching!

See more about Project Catalyst at ProjectCatalyst.com

Congratulations, Artel!

CRI Mentors: Mike Kelly

We're thrilled to announce that Mike Kelly, veteran media and advertising industry executive and leader, has joined the Cinema Research Institute as a mentor to its Fellows. Welcome, Mike! 

Named by Mediaweek as one of the “50 most influential executives shaping the future of media”, Mike is currently investing in and advising digital media and software companies. 

His career spans virtually all forms of media and entertainment, most recently as CEO of the Weather Channel Companies. He was also President of AOL Media Networks, President of Marketing at Time Warner, Founder and CEO of Americantowns.com and Publisher of Entertainment Weekly Magazine.

He is the Chairman of the Board at Unruly Media and Colspace Software and is a board director of several other high growth companies. 

Mike was Chairman of the Advertising Hall of Fame, a former member of the Ad Council and is currently a Director of the American Advertising Federation. He is also a founding member of the Kelly Gang LLC (501c3) and serves on the Board of Counselors at the President Carter Center.

He has passion for his family, great journalism, politics and classic movies. He splits his time between NYC, Martha’s Vineyard and Atlanta.

Film Personality

The following was originally written for the VHX Developers Blog as part of a writeup about a "Hack Day" project where employees are encouraged to explore a project that interests them. I used this time to develop a working MVP to determine Film Personality for already released films.

As the resident data scientist, I get to do a lot of interesting things, mostly centered around understanding how to make our platform better for our publishers and their customers. But for our last hack day, I was looking for a way to better understand the content itself. Enter Film Personality.

FILM PERSONALITY

The ideas stems from something in Brand Strategy called "brand personality," which postulates that there are five major dimensions of personality: Excitement, Sincerity, Competence, Sophistication, and Ruggedness.

Sounds a little hokey, no? While reducing all human traits into five dimensions isn't a great way to describe people, I thought it might serve as a better shorthand for discussing films than the current standard of genre, where the description "Drama" could apply to almost anything (so long as no one is enjoying themselves.)

There are a few key elements needed for putting this together: A common language used to describe films, enough people using this common language, and the ability to quickly parse their conversations to extract the key descriptive words. I found it useful to consider critics' reviews as that source of common language. They say similar things about similar types of films, even if they disagree on the quality of the film. The use of words like "exciting," "intelligent," and "imaginative" are still used, even if the critic then follows it up by saying, "but I still hated this movie."

I figured the simplest way to test this out was to use the Rotten Tomatoes API to pull in reviews for a given film and parse those using the lovely Python package Natural Language Toolkit, or NLTK. I'll walk you through a bit of the code, which turned out to be surprisingly simple for an MVP:

The first API call to Rotten Tomatoes returns the JSON of the movie the user requested, based on matching title. It's dependent on two things: 1) the Rotten Tomatoes search, and 2) that the user actually spells the film title correctly. Once we have the movie ID, we call the API again to get the reviews.

Once we get the JSON containing the review snippets, we need to tokenize the parts of speech using NLTK. This returns a list of tuples, each containing an individual word paired with an identifier ('NN' for nouns, 'VB' for verb, etc.) The parts of speech that will be most descriptive of the film's personality are verbs in the gerund form, that is ending in "-ing," and adjectives.

In order to associate these words with the film dimensions we defined earlier, I created a small dictionary including some seed words and added synonyms from NTLK's Wordnet synonym set. I also removed the words "good" and "bad" because that's, like, your opinion, man.

What we get when we run all this madness is a list of descriptive words from the reviews, and a score for each of the five dimensions. While this is currently nothing more than a proof of concept, it shows that we can mine this data for specific words, link those words to personality dimensions, and that this dimensions actually align with our conceptions of the films that are input.

There are definitely areas for improvement. The dictionary needs to be much larger to account for more words, and I would love to bring in full reviews rather than just the snippets from Rotten Tomatoes. Hopefully these iterations will show that there is a better way to define films, and that perhaps film personality is it.

Are We Waiting In Vain?

Make no mistake.  We are at war.   I’m not talking drone strikes.  I’m talking semiological warfare.  And it’s being waged by members of a corporate owned media industrial complex.

The battle is incessant for the spirit and mind of the people.  Semiological warfare is not waged on a traditional battled field with missiles or IEDs.  It’s waged on a cultural terrain with signs,images, and symbols. Movies. Television.  Music, and Advertising.

The commanders of this war strategize and execute plans that determine what we hear and see in dominant media. Their actions largely determine what we “like.”  And sadly, the folks making these decisions about our lives do not have the best interests of people of color in mind.  What is worse, this elite group is telling our stories in their voices.  They’re shaping our images from their perspectives.

Let it be known— there’s work to be done, and we need your help!  I am not afraid to get my hands dirty in the war games of media culture, especially if it means helping make the world a better place for our children’s future.  After all, a wise person once said, “the first shall be last, and the last shall be first.” A pretty revolutionary statement when you think about it.  We can no longer sit idly by waiting in vain for our voices to be heard.

My work with the CRI is designed to contribute to advancing media culture by offering multicultural audiences an opportunity to benefit from a customized cinema that caters to their experiences.  I aim to achieve this by capitalizing on the same digitally powered economies of scale that revolutionized the music industry. (Think of a film version of iTunes designed exclusively for people of color).

Based on my current research in cinema, media studies, and segmentation analysis, I’ve realized there remains asubstantial market for film and media that speaks directly to the lives and experiences of diverse communities (Black, Latina/o, and Asian-American), including in broader audiences who have multicultural tastes. The question becomes— why has dominant media willfully ignored this vast segment of the national audience?

I’ve spent much time thinking about what I can do as a cinema artist, media scholar, and historian, and what is my responsibility to engage in the heart of cinema’s most vital role in our society, which is to increase our vision of the possible.  It is from this line of inquiry that Project Catalyst was born.  My aim is to provide multicultural audiences with a distinctive voice that addresses their strong demand for better entertainment. Sure. We go to the movies in large numbers.  But the stories and images projected on the silver screens do not reflect the nature, depth, or breadth of our humanity. 

Project Catalyst emerges to showcase communities, films, artists, and filmmakers that Hollywood pretends do not exist.  We are offering new cultural programming that is perfectly aligned with the needs and desires of multicultural audiences.  Furthermore, Project Catalyst is also combining hybrid theatrical and alternative cinematic exhibition as a disruptive innovation designed to:

• provide better entertainment options in artistically underserved communities,

• offer a vital alternative distribution service for film and media artists whose work explores humanistic diverse perspectives, and to

• give audiences rich multilayered cultural experiences that are aligned with the needs and desires that express the love, laughter, and depth of our everyday lives.

In this respect, Project Catalyst is addressing a very specific need for a previously ignored population.  By delivering fresh and exciting film and visual culture to diverse communities across the United States, I intend to engage our audiences in a larger cultural and civic dialogue, by questioning worn-out social structures, and challenging Hollywood institutional practices through our own customized cinema and media arts.  At the end of the day, the work of Project Catalyst is critical to achieving the diversity needed in media to help save lives and open up new windows of possibility and understanding within our rapidly changing, highly mediated Twenty-First century culture.

We must truly begin to celebrate diversity in cinema and media— the audience is there, the appetite is there, the buying power is there, and the time— is NOW.  I real(eyes) great ideas can change the world, but it requires great people to make it happen. So I need your help. Go to our newly designed website www.projectcatalyst.com and fill out the information to “Become A Catalyst,” and get involved to show your support.  I look forward to taking this amazing journey with you!

Like our Facebook Page and follow us on Twitter for more details on how you can help spark this exciting change!!!

Revenues of Future Past

the-numbers-banner

I’ve been speaking with folks at two companies with very different approaches toward using and creating film revenue data. Both are important and insightful in different ways. The Numbers is a website combining many of the variables I’m taking into account with the film index. It has catalogued over 18,000 films, recording things like budget, release date, attachments, rating, genre and budget. It then goes on to report on their various revenue streams, including Box Office and DVD. While less reported on through the consumer-facing site, the underlying layer of data, named OpusData, also has some information about VOD sales.

While Box Office is widely available and reported on by many sources, DVD and VOD are much more elusive, so I was particularly interested in this part of the reporting. It appears the information about ancillary revenue is a combination of historical information and projections based on a survey of historicals and other factors. One service OpusData supplies is bespoke projections for production companies, distributors, researchers – basically anyone who has a focused interest in making an educated projection about an upcoming film project. Over years of classifying films along a fairly complex rubric and having access to real information regarding ancillary revenue, the system has learned enough about this to begin incorporating revenue projections beyond just box office in some cases. Perhaps even more exciting, the service also collects information and makes projections related to P&A spend, one of the pieces of data most difficult to find and validate in the film world. I am in the process of evaluating what OpusData offers and assuming I gain confidence in its validity and usefulness, I may incorporate these much-needed data into the index.

1973419

The Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) takes a very different approach to projecting film returns.  Described as a game, the system uses a community-based approach to form an idea of how well or poorly specific films are expected to perform. Participants can buy and sell “shares” in everything from films, to actors, to opening weekends. As with most exchanges, betting against projects that one thinks is overvalued (commonly called “shorting”) is also allowed.

Depending on how widespread participation in this game becomes, one could make the same arguments about its efficiency as a financial exchange in which real money changes hands. It is important to understand the amount of bias embedded in the system, by virtue of the fact that shares are being “bought” and “sold” without any actual financial consequence to the trader. This can likely be solved for fairly simply. With enough participation by rational “investors”, something like HSX could end up projecting film revenue as well as if not more efficiently than other systems, though all of the underlying motivations for specific valuations may not be fully transparent. I am continuing to explore HSX’s data to see if there might be an opportunity to incorporate it into the information contributing to the index. In the meantime, it's been fun creating a portfolio of films and hone my summer blockbuster intuition.

A team, two visits, and the hunt for data

Elastic Movies has a team! The goal is to build a demo prototype by mid-July and we kick things off in earnest next week. We've got an NYU Poly student  from the Integrated Digital Media, two ITPers (one current, one graduated), and one Stern student (myself). Concurrent to our work building a dynamic pricing app, I am trying to procure more data about attendance. Not just daily attendance by movies, but also, the number that go at any given point of day. Visits to theaters have yielded interesting, anecdotal research about the movie theater business. However, we still need more data! In addition to continuing to reach out to theaters, I will also be reaching out to Rentrak.

Some recent learnings:

• People who jump from movie to movie, but pay only once are called "hoppers." Pre-assigned seating makes it easier for staff to find hoppers.
• Most of the people that come before 12 pm are the elderly and regulars. 12-2 pm moviegoers are killing time. 4 pm onward is the post-work crowd. A lot of couples attend from 8 pm onward.
• As expected, big event movies draw larger online ticket sales. Competitors, though, also impact a consumer's decision to pre-buy. The fewer competitors around you, the more market power you have, the more likely consumers are to pre-buy for big movies. It is more difficult to find another nearby movie theater that might be playing that same big movie.

Grouped: Marketing for the share of information

I recently read Grouped: How small groups of friends are the key to influence on the social web by Paul Adams, a social researcher at Facebook, and I’d like to share a few of the important takeaways from what he found. I apologize in advance for the very Bob Lefsetz-style of this post. Changing Consumer Behavior

“[People are] spending less time interacting with content, and more time communicating with other people”

Think about what you do most frequently on the internet. Is it typically a search for products, news, and information? Or is it specifically to see what your friends are up to and talking about? Whether it is checking photos, comments on the news of the day, or social gaming, more people are interacting with other people than they are simply consuming content.

The film industry has had a terrible time of trying to integrate social sharing and experience into the industry, it will be something absolutely necessary for the success of the next generation of content.

“Most of our consumer behavior models are structured this way— people acting independently, moving down a decision funnel, making objective choices along the way. Recent research in psychology and neuroscience shows that this isn’t how people make decisions.”

The general concept of customer acquisition in marketing is based on a funnel. People supposedly convert from the larger to the smaller end of the funnel and those that make it the whole way are your customers.

New-Marketing-Funnel1

Turns out “the classic sales funnel is based on a view of humans as rational thinkers, making rational decisions as they move down through the funnel…. is simply not true.” Human being are influenced far more by emotion that ever accounted for in standard economic models. “We need instead to market towards emotion.“

Film marketers seem to know this, but only sometimes. In the four P’s of Marketing (Product, Price, Place, and Promotion,) the movie industry only appeals to our emotions with first, the Product. They seem hesitant to recognize that Price changes will become necessary, especially as the Place changes further from theaters to homes via phones and tablets. And Promotion has to change from the current top-down “barking at customers” model to a more community-based one.

“We share feelings, not facts”

Adams goes on to state “this included positive emotions such as awe, and negative emotions such as anger and anxiety. Emotions that were not arousing, for example sadness, did not trigger sharing of content.”

Could this be why dramas are typically so much harder to market than spectacle-based action movies or horror films? It is, in my opinion, why the trailer for Gravity was so effective. It spoke to viewers on an instinctual level of fear and survival. Not that every film can do this, but the even the ones who could don’t seem to understand the simple fact.

“Reason is dependent on emotion.”

Not only are feelings important in what we share, they are actually important in what we chose to buy and not buy. “Research has shown that offering people a smaller immediate gain activated different neural systems in the brain than did offering them a larger gain in two to four weeks.”

Think about this in terms of crowd funding you film. You can offer rewards to backers, sure. But what if you can provide Instant Gratification in the form of a small video as soon as they support your project. That is just one example of understanding the intricacies of human behavior that result in increased audience engagement.

Speaking of which, before you can speak to an audience in the right way, you have to know how to find them…

How To Reach Your Audience

The Myth of the Influencer

“Targeting large numbers of these people , potentially in the thousands, is more likely to spread ideas than trying to find a small number of influential individuals. These people won’t be visible on an individual level. You won’t necessarily know them by name. But you will know that they have the right attributes to be interested in what you have to say. Using many of these people to set off many small cascades averages out the random factor, and is more likely to produce consistent positive results.”

This is the general ethos for my research. By defining groups of similar people, similar in the right ways, we can determine how appropriate a film is for that group and realistically constrain marketing budgets. For more about this, check out my post on the cohort analysis done on the OkCupid data set.

The Real Influencer - Everyone

We tend to focus on those that have a seemingly large influence (think Oprah and her book club,) but it turns out what we should be focused on are groups of people who have a low barrier to being influenced. In other words, focus on to whom you are talking, rather than who is doing the talking about your film.

Ideas spread when people have low adoption thresholds. For ideas to spread widely, you need connected groups of easily influenced people. These easily influenced groups are called “Innovative Hubs.” Think of anyone who was an early adopter of technology like Betamax or Mini-disk players (shamefully, I was an owner of the latter.)

Innovative hubs are people who are highly connected and have a low threshold for new ideas. They embrace new ideas after being exposed to them a small number of times. The next group in the path to adoption are “Follower hubs” which are more common. These groups consist of people who are highly connected but have a high threshold for new ideas.

“As we increase our reliance on our social networks to make decisions, we won’t turn to strangers, nor will we turn to recognized experts. Instead we will turn to the same people we have been genetically trained to turn to for help— the people we’re emotionally closest to.”

Segmenting is Changing

 “Marketers currently segregate by demographics and psychographics, but in the future they’ll need to segregate by social network structure.”

The connectedness of a network is one component of prediction the spread of information through that network. The other is the ease at which the nodes in the network are influenced. These are not trivial questions to answer currently, but hopefully the work I’m doing during my fellowship will begin to increase the understanding of how to determine these metrics.

Density is as important as spread

“Focus on getting your message shared within a group as much as you focus on getting it to spread between groups…. When we’re planning marketing campaigns, we should concentrate on content that is likely to spread among friends, and friends of friends, but we shouldn’t expect it to spread to people more than three degrees away from the people who first encountered the message.”

This is the key for independent film without huge marketing budgets or publicity campaigns. You should focus on getting everyone, yes everyone, in you direct group involved and interested in your film. Only by obtaining critical mass in a small, closely connected group can you then expect to reach secondary groups.

I’m currently trying this strategy with a Kickstarter campaign for Anatomy of an American Dream, a feature documentary I am producing. Considering this as my case study, I hope to fill you in on the progress as I test these strategies over the next month.

Whatchu Talking 'Bout Tyler Perry?

Much has been made about Tyler Perry’s meteoric rise to fame and fortune.  Much has also been made about his ever-expanding business empire and the creation of Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta.  And yet, Perry’s business model is not new to Black America.  Nor is Perry the first Black person to create an independent film studio. 

As a scholar in American film history,  my research reminds me that the second decade of the 1900s, saw the emergence of a new movie cycle—  the so-called “race films.”  This cycle peaked around the 1920s and 1930s.  The “race films” centered primarily on Black-American characters and were produced by Black filmmakers, specifically for Black audiences.  This all occurred within the harsh realities of  a system of American apartheid terrorism and white racial animus.  And within this brutally hostile environment independent Black filmmakers rose like a phoenix from the ashes to create a vibrant cinematic expansion through self-reliance, community building, and an unflinching entrepreneurial spirit.

(Tyler Perry)

Beginning in 1910, with opening of The Foster Photoplay Company by William D. Foster in Chicago, next the Lincoln Motion Picture Company was founded in 1915 by George and Noble Johnson in Omaha, Nebraska, and most notably, the Micheaux Film and Book Company was founded in 1918 by the legendary Oscar Micheaux also in Chicago. The release of William Foster’s The Railroad Porter (1912) along with the backlash in Black communities to the insidious racialized defamation of The Birth of a Nation (1915), set the stage for the materialization of this cinematic movement by Black-American filmmakers and producers to create films specifically for Black audiences.  Soon we saw independent Black films spring forth with the expressed intent to counter white hegemony over the Black screen image.

These films included, The Lincoln Motion Picture Company’s, The Realization of a Negro’s Ambition (1916) and Oscar Micheaux’s, Within Our Gates (1920). The emergence of these new films (produced outside of Hollywood’s inequitable infrastructure) by marginalized groups actually catered toward a dissatisfied and disenfranchised audience who were being ignored by the lamestream film industry.  Sound familiar?

These filmmakers were remarkably able to achieve the development and execution of an alternative film distribution system (in an era where the price of resistance was often lethal).  These bold entrepreneurial pioneers created Black films, for Black audiences that played in Black communities in Black theaters, and even created Black film stars like, Paul Robeson, Hattie McDaniel, Clarence Muse, and Evelyn Preer.  The race film movement ran parallel to its vaudeville counterpart known rather pejoratively as the “chitlin circuit.”  Noted scholar Henry Louis Gates, Jr. describes the old Chitlin Circuit as a “spawning ground for a good number of accomplished Black actors, comics, and musicians… crisscrossing Black America, the circuit established an empire of comedy and pathos, the sublime and the ridiculous: a moveable feast that enabled Blacks to patronize Black entertainers… The productions were for, by, and about Black folks...”[i]

Now let’s put this all in the proper perspective— under some of the most egregiously brutal white supremacy, we saw the organization of several independent Black film studios that created prolifically for their target audience entirely outside of the Hollywood studio system and plugged their films into their own alternative distribution network, while turning a profit!  No social media. No cell phones. No Kickstarter. No internet. No TV ads. No public relations experts.  Just passion. Vision. And a tremendous will to serve an audience thirsty for entertainment and images that reflected the diversity of their own experiences on the screen.  Sound familiar? Ehmmm. (clearing my throat.)

This is why I love history! Malcolm X once said, “Of all of our studies, history is most qualified to reward our research.” That is absolutely true.  In fact, it is through my research into this rich (yet, often overlooked) history of American film that I was inspired to design Project Catalystover one year ago.

If these industrious filmmakers could achieve their own studios and distribution networks in the 1900s under the threat of lynching and all manner of violence, imagine what we can achieve with all of the advancements in new technology that has lowered the cost of production, initiated the democratization of information, and created the digital ubiquity that has become our reality!

We must truly begin to celebrate diversity in cinema and media— the audience is there, the appetite is there, the buying power is there, and the time— is NOW.

(PHOTO: Members of the Lincoln Motion Picture Company)

And yes, I know you’re wondering. How come I've never heard of these independent Black studios before? Whatever happened to “race films?” Unfortunately, most of the companies responsible for the production of the over five hundred or so “race films” that we know to have existed were profoundly undercapitalized.  In spite of the ground-breaking endeavors of the Foster Photoplay Company, the Lincoln Motion Picture Company, and the Micheaux Film and Book Company, by the onset of the Great Depression many Black actors were being poached by Hollywood.  

Also, the advent of the “talkies” adversely impacted Black independent filmmakers and the race film category insofar as many Black producers were unable to afford the cost of the new sound and camera equipment.

Notwithstanding, it’s important to shine a bright spotlight on their enormous contribution, and it is my intention to extend their legacies and use the inspiration of their sacrifice to carry forward the liberatory torch of hope that burns bright for our future.

I real(eyes) great ideas can change the world, but it requires great people to make it happen. Please check our website www.projectcatalyst.com and fill out the information to “Become A Catalyst,” and show your support.  I look forward to taking this amazing journey with you!

(PHOTO: Oscar Micheaux)

Also be sure to like our Facebook Page, follow us on Twitter, and check out our newly designed Tumblr for more details on how you can help spark this exciting change!!!

[i] Henry Louis Gates, Jr. The Chitlin Circuit,The New Yorker Feburary 3, 1997, 49.

Are We Waiting In Vain?

Make no mistake.  We are at war.   I'm not talking drone strikes.  I’m talking semiological warfare.  And it's being waged by members of a corporate owned media industrial complex. The battle is incessant for the spirit and mind of the people.  Semiological warfare is not waged on a traditional battled field with missiles or IEDs.  It’s waged on a cultural terrain with signs, images, and symbols. Movies. Television. Music, and Advertising.

The commanders of this war strategize and execute plans that determine what we hear and see in dominant media. Their actions largely determine what we "like."  And sadly, the folks making these decisions about our lives do not have the best interests of people of color in mind.  What is worse, this elite group is telling our stories in their voices.  They’re shaping our images from their perspectives.

Let it be known— there’s work to be done, and we need your help!  I am not afraid to get my hands dirty in the war games of media culture, especially if it means helping make the world a better place for our children’s future.  After all, a wise person once said, “the first shall be last, and the last shall be first.” A pretty revolutionary statement when you think about it.  We can no longer sit idly by waiting in vain for our voices to be heard.

My work with the CRI is designed to contribute to advancing media culture by offering multicultural audiences an opportunity to benefit from a customized cinema that caters to their experiences.  I aim to achieve this by capitalizing on the same digitally powered economies of scale that revolutionized the music industry. (Think of a film version of iTunes designed exclusively for people of color).

Based on my current research in cinema, media studies, and segmentation analysis, I’ve realized there remains a substantial market for film and media that speaks directly to the lives and experiences of diverse communities (Black, Latina/o, and Asian-American), including in broader audiences who have multicultural tastes. The question becomes— why has dominant media willfully ignored this vast segment of the national audience?

I’ve spent much time thinking about what I can do as a cinema artist, media scholar, and historian, and what is my responsibility to engage in the heart of cinema’s most vital role in our society, which is to increase our vision of the possible.  It is from this line of inquiry that Project Catalyst was born.  My aim is to provide multicultural audiences with a distinctive voice that addresses their strong demand for better entertainment. Sure. We go to the movies in large numbers.  But the stories and images projected on the silver screens do not reflect the nature, depth, or breadth of our humanity.  Project Catalyst emerges to showcase communities, films, artists, and filmmakers that Hollywood pretends do not exist.  We are offering new cultural programming that is perfectly aligned with the needs and desires of multicultural audiences.  Furthermore, Project Catalyst is also combining hybrid theatrical and alternative cinematic exhibition as a disruptive innovation designed to:

• provide better entertainment options in artistically underserved communities,

• offer a vital alternative distribution service for film and media artists whose work explores humanistic diverse perspectives, and to

•  give audiences rich multilayered cultural experiences that are aligned with the needs and desires that express the love, laughter, and depth of our everyday lives.

In this respect, Project Catalyst is addressing a very specific need for a previously ignored population.  By delivering fresh and exciting film and visual culture to diverse communities across the United States, I intend to engage our audiences in a larger cultural and civic dialogue, by questioning worn-out social structures, and challenging Hollywood institutional practices through our own customized cinema and media arts.  At the end of the day, the work of Project Catalyst is critical to achieving the diversity needed in media to help save lives and open up new windows of possibility and understanding within our rapidly changing, highly mediated Twenty-First century culture.

We must truly begin to celebrate diversity in cinema and media— the audience is there, the appetite is there, the buying power is there, and the time— is NOW.  I real(eyes) great ideas can change the world, but it requires great people to make it happen. So I need your help. Go to our newly designed website www.projectcatalyst.com and fill out the information to “Become A Catalyst,” and get involved to show your support.  I look forward to taking this amazing journey with you!

Like our Facebook Page and follow us on Twitter for more details on how you can help spark this exciting change!!!

New partners-in-crime: NYU Poly Integrated Digital Media + IFP Media Center

It takes a crew to build a ship, right? The project (tentatively titled Elastic Movies currently) is now in the "build" phase. There are two big priorities over the next several months: gather data about movie ticket attendance (as granular as possible) to develop an algorithm, and prototype an app. This week, I joined the IFP Media Center as a fellow.  Newly opened just 7 months ago in Dumbo, the Center is a partnership between Made in NY and IFP. There are a number of gaming, new media, and entertainment companies already in the co-working space. I've got some office space in the incubator program and hope to find some great collaborators here. Or at the very least, smart folks to bounce ideas off of and frequent commuting walks over the Manhattan Bridge.

To build the app and rethink movie pricing, a partnership with NYU Poly is in the works. The Integrated Digital Media co-director Luke DuBois gave a tour of the year-old floor and the work that they're doing is pretty awesome. The best part is that this space holds not just students from the IDM program, but from other NYU groups that are interested in cross-collaboration. The MFA Gaming group is here, instance. A blurb about this dynamic ticket pricing project goes up today, and hopefully, some great Poly collaborators will be joining the project soon.